It’s been a long year for Southern Miss football.
This time last year, Troy was finishing up a 52-20 win over the Golden Eagles in the final game of the regular season. Southern Miss would finish 1-11 and had no clear future ahead of it.
Then, athletic director Jeremy McClain hired Charles Huff from Marshall, and the anticipation and excitement grew once again for Southern Miss football.
Now, fast forward one year later, and Southern Miss will play Troy again — but this time with a Sun Belt West title on the line. A scenario only a few outside the program predicted when the season began. A win would send Southern Miss to the conference championship game for the first time since joining the Sun Belt Conference and would mark the program’s first conference championship appearance since 2015.
On paper, these two teams are eerily similar.
Southern Miss started off red-hot in Sun Belt play, rattling off five straight wins behind a defense that forced a flurry of turnovers and a balanced offense. But over the last two weeks, the Golden Eagles have been run off the field by two teams below .500. Troy also started fast, opening 4-0 in league play before a home loss to Arkansas State derailed momentum in the back half of the season.
The Trojans were then blown out by Old Dominion at home and slugged their way past Georgia State last weekend to reach this championship game.
Over the course of the season, Troy’s offense has never found its footing.
The Trojans own one of the worst offenses in the Sun Belt, totaling just 316.3 yards per game — ranking 13th among 14 teams, just ahead of league-worst Louisiana-Monroe, which did put up 21 points against this Southern Miss defense.
The biggest boost for Troy came last week with the return of starting quarterback Goose Crowder, who had been sidelined for most of the season with an injury.
In his return against Georgia State, Crowder finished 27 of 43 for 361 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. It was the most points Troy has scored since mid-October, finishing with 31.
If Crowder can mirror that kind of production against a very vulnerable Southern Miss defense, the Trojans should be able to move the ball with consistency.
But there’s a catch.
At the center of this matchup is Troy’s biggest vulnerability — its offensive line.
The Trojans have surrendered 47 sacks this season, the most in the Sun Belt by a wide margin at 4.27 per game.
Georgia State recorded four sacks last weekend against Troy despite ranking near the bottom of the conference in sacks entering the game.
Southern Miss’ defensive line should have plenty of opportunities to get after Crowder, which could allow the turnovers that have been missing the past few weeks to finally return.
If Southern Miss lets Crowder sit comfortably in the pocket, Troy’s offense will be able to click, and it will be difficult to stop.
Despite recent struggles, Southern Miss still ranks seventh in the league with 24 total sacks.
If the Golden Eagles are going to win the West, pressure must define the night.
Troy’s offense leans on tempo and vertical throws, but quarterback comfort has been elusive. When kept clean, the Trojans can stretch the field. When forced off schedule, drives have had a tendency to unravel. That is where Southern Miss sees its clearest path to disrupting the Sun Belt’s No. 13 offense.
Undoubtedly, the Southern Miss defense is the biggest question heading into the game.
Over the past two games, the Golden Eagles’ defense has struggled mightily, allowing 898 total yards (449 per game). More alarming, they have given up 520 rushing yards (260 per game) over that span.
But to Southern Miss’ relief, Troy is not a strong rushing team.
The Trojans rank last in the league in rushing offense at 107.1 yards per game and just 2.99 yards per carry — a stark contrast to the top-heavy Sun Belt ground games like James Madison and Texas State.
On the other side of the ball, Troy brings a solid defense. The Trojans rank fourth in the Sun Belt, just behind South Alabama.
Southern Miss’ offense struggled badly against Texas State and wasn’t much better until the fourth quarter against South Alabama.
The Golden Eagles still rank fourth in the league in total offense at 412.8 yards per game, but that number disguises how inconsistent the unit has become from series to series. Sustaining drives has proven difficult, especially in short-yardage situations where the lack of a downhill running game has limited play-calling and created frequent third-and-long situations.
The Trojans rank eighth against the run in the Sun Belt, allowing 177.9 yards per game — just slightly worse than South Alabama, which held Southern Miss to only 41 rushing yards.
If Southern Miss cannot generate push inside and remain ahead of the chains, the night could turn into a field-position battle that favors Troy’s defensive profile.
Who will win the game?
This matchup almost sets up as a clash of weaknesses as much as strengths, and that ultimately tilts the game toward Southern Miss. Troy’s offensive line remains a massive question mark, particularly whether it can hold up against a capable Southern Miss defensive front. If the Golden Eagles can consistently create pressure without heavy blitzing, Troy’s offense becomes far less efficient.
Southern Miss does not need to be explosive offensively to win this game. A steady offensive approach, paired with one or two timely explosive plays, should be just enough for the Golden Eagles to get past Troy and earn the right to play James Madison next week for the Sun Belt Championship.
I think Troy covers the 6.5, however.
Pick: Southern Miss 24, Troy 21
