Sun Belt races tighten as Week 11 approaches
As the college football season heads into Week 11, Southern Miss got a big boost in Week 10 without even taking the field.
Arkansas State’s 23-10 win at Troy dramatically changed the West Division standings and set up a pivotal matchup this weekend in Jonesboro.
There were also a few twists in the East — including Coastal Carolina’s convincing 44-27 win over Marshall — leaving both division races looking much different entering Week 11.
West Division
Arkansas State’s upset has turned the West into a genuine three-team race. Southern Miss remains the only unbeaten team in conference play at 4-0, while Troy and Arkansas State each sit a game back at 4-1.
The Golden Eagles control their own destiny, but the Red Wolves’ win over Troy makes this Saturday’s meeting in Jonesboro enormous.
If Southern Miss wins, it would move to 5-0 in league play and hold a full-game lead over both Troy and Arkansas State — plus a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Red Wolves.
That matters because Troy, the other major threat in the standings, still has to visit Old Dominion on Nov. 13. The Monarchs — fresh off a 31-6 win over ULM — are 6-3 overall and still mathematically alive in the East.
If ODU knocks off Troy and Southern Miss beats Arkansas State and Texas State, here’s how the West could look after Nov. 15:
Southern Miss 6-0
Arkansas State 4-2
Troy 4-2
That would mean Southern Miss could clinch the West with a win at South Alabama (2-7) on Nov. 22. Even if Troy beats ODU, a Southern Miss win at Arkansas State would almost assure that the division title runs through Hattiesburg on Nov. 29.
That’s why this week is pivotal: a win in Jonesboro could give Charles Huff’s group a clear path to the Sun Belt Championship Game without outside help.
If Arkansas State beats Southern Miss, the picture changes completely. The Red Wolves would improve to 5-1, Southern Miss would fall to 4-1, and Troy would remain 4-1 heading into its trip to Old Dominion.
Arkansas State would suddenly take over first place with just three weeks remaining, though it has only two games left after Saturday (vs. Louisiana, @ App State). Head-to-head tiebreakers would flip in the Red Wolves’ favor — they’d own wins over both Troy and Southern Miss — giving them the inside track to the championship.
For Southern Miss, a loss would take control out of its hands and require help from either Troy or Arkansas State down the stretch.
East Division
The winner of last weekend’s Marshall–Coastal Carolina game had major implications for the East, and Coastal’s 44-27 victory kept the Chanticleers in the hunt behind clear frontrunner James Madison.
JMU is 5-0 in Sun Belt play after routing Texas State 52-20, but the Dukes still have two major road tests looming that could determine whether they return to the Sun Belt Championship Game — or get knocked out entirely.
JMU travels to Marshall (2-2) this week before visiting Coastal Carolina (4-1) in the regular-season finale. Both teams still have mathematical paths to the title.
Coastal’s schedule sets up favorably with home games against Georgia State and JMU and a trip to Georgia Southern. If the Chanticleers win out, they’ll finish 7-1 in conference and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Marshall and JMU — clinching the East outright, even if JMU is unbeaten entering the finale.
If Coastal stumbles before facing the Dukes, JMU could lock up the East early and punch its ticket back to the championship game.
