Sometimes I wonder when I have children if they will whine more than college football “analysts” and media personalities. Seriously, I turn on ESPN and all they are doing is whining about the Group of Five getting two teams in instead of Notre Dame being in the playoff.
I turn on Fox Sports and they are complaining that there aren’t enough “good games” in the first round. I scroll Twitter and see post after post complaining about this and complaining about that.
It makes me ask myself: IS ANYONE HAPPY?
Let’s stop complaining just for a second and appreciate how awesome the 12-team playoff really is. Let’s face it, if we still had a four-team playoff, all these discussions wouldn’t even be happening. The discussion would be about whether Oregon would even be in the field or not.
Now the College Football Playoff has expanded, and instead of appreciating the progress, the conversation has been hijacked by familiar grumbling: Group of Five teams don’t belong, Notre Dame should always be in, and somehow the old system was better after all.
This season’s playoff isn’t perfect — no postseason ever is — but it is unquestionably better.
Now, even a season ago, we recognized change in the playoff format and fixed it to what it should be.
Consider the top four seeds a year ago: 1. Oregon, 2. Georgia, 3. Boise State, 4. Arizona State.
When the bracket came out, everyone knew those weren’t the four best teams in the country. That’s how No. 1 seed Oregon ended up having to play Ohio State in its first quarterfinal game because there was such terrible seeding. Penn State was a double-digit favorite in its quarterfinal game, as was Texas, which was the No. 5 seed.
This was due to the dumb rule that conference champions were the only teams that could get byes.
If that were the case this year, you’d have a top four as follows: 1. Indiana, 2. Georgia, 3. Texas Tech, 4. Tulane.
That’s right — Tulane, which didn’t stand a chance against Ole Miss, would have an automatic punched ticket to the next round, while a team like Oregon would be battling Texas A&M or Miami for a chance to get to the quarterfinal games.
With the fix of straight seeding the top four teams, we got a much better playoff than a season ago.
You want to talk about blowouts? There were 11 games in the playoff, and nine of them were decided by double-digit margins in 2024.
That’s right, only Texas-Arizona State and Notre Dame-Penn State were decided by fewer than 10 points.
This season, we got two great games in the first round, with Alabama rallying back to beat Oklahoma and Miami slugging its way to beating Texas A&M on the road.
In a normal tournament bracket, that would make sense. The 8-9 game and 7-10 game are close, while the 6-11 and 5-12 games are not so much.
The only reason that was the case this season is because of the simple change we made last year of making the top four seeds not conference champions.
What does that leave us? It leaves us with what should be four absolute bangers in the quarterfinals.
Oregon-Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl should be an incredible fight, especially in the trenches. Alabama-Indiana is the most unbelievable matchup maybe in college football history as far as irony, and of course they’re playing in the Rose Bowl. Ole Miss-Georgia is a rematch, yes, but the game in Athens earlier this season was a lot of fun. The Rebels and that offense against a revitalized Kirby Smart and that Georgia defense? Sign me up. Then, Ohio State, on its march to repeat as national champions, plays Miami in what everyone thought would be the championship game two months ago.
Think about the quarterfinal games a season ago. Arizona State-Texas — yes, it ended up being closer than everyone thought, but the Longhorns were heavy favorites. Oregon-Ohio State in the Rose Bowl was a fun buildup. Penn State was a heavy favorite against a Boise State Group of Five team that somehow got the bye. Notre Dame vs. Georgia was a game where no one knew what Georgia would be like with a backup quarterback.
So maybe two good games? Oregon-Ohio State and Georgia-Notre Dame? This season, because of one small tweak, we get four absolute cinema games in the quarterfinal round.
I’m going to go ahead and pick each semifinal game, since our next paper runs on the first of the year next week and all the games will be over.
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech: This game should be an incredibly fun watch. Texas Tech’s defensive line vs. that Oregon offensive front will feed families. The only thing I wonder about with Oregon is what happens when it runs into a good defense. Indiana was able to generate pressure, and Oregon hasn’t seen a defense close to that since that game. Texas Tech should be able to score enough to win in a low-scoring affair. Pick: Texas Tech 20, Oregon 17
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana: What a world we live in. Indiana, the nation’s losingest program in college football history, is a seven-point favorite against the mighty Tide. I really like this Indiana team. They aren’t huge and don’t appear to be giant movers, but they are just so incredibly well-coached. Their defense should wreak havoc against Simpson for Alabama, and Mendoza should feast on the Alabama secondary. Pick: Indiana 31, Alabama 17
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia: Ole Miss was able to move the ball so well on Georgia in the first meeting, I just don’t see it happening again without Lane Kiffin. I think the Bulldogs defense will be better prepared this time around and keep Chambliss off the field just enough for Georgia to punch its ticket to the Fiesta Bowl.
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State: Getting these two schools back on the field should make for a great helmet matchup. Ohio State’s defense has been the best defense by far in the entire country this season. They made the Heisman Trophy winner look like he was a freshman at times, and Carson Beck doesn’t stand much of a chance. The biggest question here is Ohio State’s offensive line vs. Miami’s defensive line. But Ohio State just has too much, though Miami hangs around for a bit with that defense. Pick: Ohio State 24, Miami 9
