Election Day is next Tuesday and, with just five days left, the infamous "October surprise" we hear about every presidential election cycle never really showed up this year. Not one that will count anyway. There have been plenty of noteworthy October surprises over the years, dating back to Jimmy Carter's botched effort to secure the release of the American hostages held in Iran during his 1980 reelection campaign. Conventional wisdom holds that had Carter's attempt to free the hostages succeeded, Ronald Reagen may not have won that election. But Reagan did win — by one of the largest margins in American history.
Fast forward to 2016, when Donald Trump's own October surprise caught up to him during his first run for president. Who can forget the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape where Trump bragged about the sexual transgressions men can get away with because they're famous? He boasted about how women would allow famous men like him to, putting it mildly, "grab them by the [genitals]." Ouch. A comment like that would have torpedoed any candidate's campaign during normal times. But, by then, we really were living in "different times."
To further complicate the 2016 election, shortly after the "Access Hollywood" tape, then-FBI chief James Comey delivered an October surprise of his own for Trump's opponent, Hillary Clinton. Comey announced plans to reopen the investigation into one of conservative media's favorite talking points against Clinton. That is, during her time serving as President Obama's Secretary of State, questions arose regarding the disappearance of government emails from her computer in the weeks leading up to the election. Turns out, it all amounted to a classic case of "nothing to see here." Still, Comey's decision to reopen the investigation threw a wrench into Clinton's campaign just days before the election. Comey's investigation found nothing but turned out to be a gift for Trump. Some place Clinton's loss at the feet of Comey's decision to reopen the case. Ironically, Trump would end up firing Comey just months into his first term, for what are best described as dubious reasons. But that's another story.
Which brings us to 2024 and Trump's campaign to return to the White House. And, as of this writing, he could very well pull it off. Democrats' hope for an October surprise that could doom Trump's candidacy hasn't materialized. October surprise? Are you kidding? It doesn't even seem to matter. Since he left office, Trump could have opened up a "Surprise of the Month Club." It's worth a recap.
In fall of 2022, a civil lawsuit was filed in New York against Trump, his adult sons and one of his former longtime aides for, allegedly, a years-long scheme in which he fraudulently reported the value of his real estate properties in order to lower his tax bills — all with an eye towards increasing his net worth.
Then there was the hush money scandal, March 2023, in which Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg became the first prosecutor to bring felony charges against Trump. In this case, it was alleged that the former president falsified business records as part of a scheme to pay hush money to women with whom he'd had sexual relations. Those charges date back to Trump's first run for president in 2016 in which he attempted to keep secret his affair with former adult entertainer Stormy Daniels. Trump was convicted, but sentencing for that case has been delayed until after this year's election. But wait, there's more.
In May of last year, a jury in Manhattan concluded that Trump had sexually assaulted and defamed E. Jean Carroll, awarding her $5 million and, in a second suit, another $83 million, for his continued public defamation of Carroll.
In Palm Beach County, Florida, Special Counsel Jack Smith has charged Trump with 37 felonies in connection with his removal of classified documents from the White House upon his exit from office on January 20, 2021. The charges include willful retention of national security information, obstruction of justice, withholding of documents and false statements made in connection to them all. Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee (and, it can be argued, a Trump loyalist), has dismissed the case, finding that Smith's appointment was not constitutional. Smith is not giving up on this one.
Let's move upstate to Georgia's Fulton County, where District Attorney Fani Willis brought racketeering charges against Trump, along with 18 of his cohorts, alleging they'd all taken part in a conspiracy, spread across weeks, aimed at circumventing the results of that state's 2020 election results. The resolution of that case is pending. Willis got herself and the case into hot water with revelations that she'd engaged in a romantic relationship with an attorney she'd hired as a special prosecutor in the case. Talk about a forced error. The judge has declined to toss the case, but Willis' affair was a gift to Trump's efforts to beat the charges.
Then there's the granddaddy of Trump's cases: federal criminal charges brought in Washington against the former president related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. His actions, or lack thereof, in quelling the events of the day allegedly led to the insurrection attempt on the United States Capitol building on January 6, 2021, traditionally the day when Congress meets to certify election results. As we know now, Trump had no intention of allowing that certification to happen. After assembling thousands of his followers on the Washington Mall, he would, for all intents and purposes, sic a mob on the Capitol building in an effort to prevent Congress from doing its job. What happened that day, instigated by a still-sitting U.S. President, ranks with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the events of 9/11 as three of the most traumatic days in American history.
The biggest October surprise is that Trump is poised to get away with everything he's been accused of. Constantly portraying himself as the victim, he is anything but. He is aided and abetted by leaders of a Republican Party whose dedication to Trump rises above their love for country. The party is rudderless, counting on Trump as their leader, indeed, as their salvation. But they're not alone.
Trump has succeeded in stacking the United States Supreme Court with justices who act in every way to protect him. Like him, Trump's justices have shown little respect for the rule of law, demonstrated in a recent ruling wherein Trump would be immune from prosecution for what are questionably labeled as "official acts" while in office. History will not judge these justices kindly.
With all that said, sorry, Democrats — and to lovers of the Constitution on both sides of the aisle. Should he win next week, Donald Trump will waste no time in dismissing all of the federal charges lined up against him. There's no surprise there either.
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Elijah Jones is a proud Hattiesburg native who enjoys writing. Email him at edjhubtown@aol.com.
