Saturday marks the first Saturday in November, meaning the races for conference titles across college football are beginning to take shape.
Every Wednesday from now until the end of the year, The Pine Belt News will break down where each team stands in the West and East divisions of the Sun Belt and outline the key matchups that could shake up the standings.
In the West, it’s shaping up to be a three-team sprint between Southern Miss, Troy and Arkansas State. In the East, James Madison remains the clear frontrunner, but several challengers are still clinging to hope.
JMU clear frontrunner in the East, but two teams still loom
After a 52-20 drubbing of Texas State last night, the Dukes sit in prime position to win another divisional crown. They’re 5-0 in conference play, with wins over Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana, Old Dominion and Texas State.
But they still have work to do to lock up the East. JMU must travel to Marshall (2-1), which remains alive for the division title, and close the season at Coastal Carolina (3-1), also still in contention.
Marshall quietly sits within striking distance, with remaining games against Coastal Carolina, James Madison, Georgia State, App State and Georgia Southern. If the Thundering Herd can upset JMU, it would suddenly create a realistic race down the stretch.
Coastal Carolina also remains in contention, with a favorable home-heavy schedule that includes Marshall, Georgia State and James Madison in Conway. If Coastal wins out — including a victory over the Dukes — it could make things very interesting entering the final weekend.
Still, JMU controls its own fate. A win at Marshall in two weeks would likely all but clinch the East and secure the Dukes’ return trip to the Sun Belt Championship Game.
Three-way race for the West
By record, only three teams remain alive in the West: Southern Miss, Troy and Arkansas State. The good news is that everyone plays each other down the stretch.
Key upcoming matchups:
Nov. 1 — Arkansas State at Troy
Nov. 8 — Southern Miss at Arkansas State
Nov. 13 — Troy at Old Dominion
Nov. 29 — Troy at Southern Miss
Southern Miss has been the big story of the division so far, turning a 1-11 campaign last season into a team that’s very much in contention to win the West. The Golden Eagles have already beaten Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana and Louisiana-Monroe, and their remaining slate is manageable — at Arkansas State, vs. Texas State, at South Alabama and home against Troy to end the regular season.
Troy has surprised some by sitting at 4-0 in league play with a relatively young roster. Arkansas State, meanwhile, has quietly re-entered the race after a sluggish start. The Red Wolves are 3-1, with wins over Texas State, South Alabama and Georgia Southern, and a lone loss to ULM.
If Troy beats Arkansas State this weekend, the Red Wolves would fall to 3-2, making the Southern Miss game a must-win to avoid elimination. That result would also set up a likely de facto West championship game between Troy and Southern Miss on Nov. 29.
However, if you’re a Southern Miss fan, you should be rooting for Arkansas State to beat Troy this Saturday. That result would put the Golden Eagles in the driver’s seat with a win at Arkansas State next week.
In that scenario, the Golden Eagles would hold a one-game lead over both Troy and Arkansas State and own the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Red Wolves. Should Troy also stumble the following week in a tough road game at Old Dominion, Southern Miss could clinch the division as early as Nov. 22 at South Alabama — potentially locking up a spot in the Sun Belt Championship Game before even facing Troy in the regular-season finale.
Troy is a seven-point home favorite against the Red Wolves in a game Golden Eagle fans should be tuned into.
Needless to say, the next two weeks are crucial for the Sun Belt West. Southern Miss will put itself in prime position to make the Sun Belt West run through Hattiesburg if it can beat the Red Wolves next Saturday.
