The state of Mississippi has become the gem of college baseball in the last two years. Now all eyes have turned their attention to Southern Miss on whether or not the perennial mid-major team can break through to a national championship.
The Golden Eagles are more than capable of making such a run, but here is a breakdown of why they can’t and why they can play for a national title.
THE CANT’S
1. EXPECTATIONS
As just mentioned, with Mississippi State and Ole Miss winning the national championship the past two years, the expectations have risen for a Southern Miss program that already keeps them high.
For context, in the last few years, the goal for Southern Miss has been to reach Omaha, a feat they have yet to do since their lone appearance in 2009. And yet, because of the level of baseball that Mississippi has produced in the last few seasons, the Golden Eagles have gone from talking about reaching Omaha to discussing winning a national championship. It’s understandable, and maybe the change of thinking can be a positive difference-maker, but regardless it’s still a jump.
As successful as Southern Miss has been in the last six years, the Golden Eagles have come up short in big moments. Prior to last year, Southern Miss missed reaching the Super Regionals after falling short in the Baton Rouge Regional in 2019 and the Oxford Regional in 2021.
Not to mention, in 2021 the Golden Eagles were in a prime position to host a regional, but Southern Miss failed to reach the conference championship game, which cost them.
Even last year, as celebrated as last year was and should be remembered, there were missed opportunities. Southern Miss failed to win the conference tournament in Hattiesburg, and USM was not only swept by a red-hot Ole Miss team but failed to even score a run in the Super Regional. The point is that the Golden Eagles have had major opportunities in the past and failed to seize them.
Let’s acknowledge that it’s a ridiculously tall order for everything to be perfect, but it feels that’s the bar for this season. You have to wonder how Southern Miss handles the adversity and how they respond when things don’t go to plan.
2. PITCHING STAFF TURNOVER
Besides ace pitcher Tanner Hall, the Golden Eagles lost seven of their eight top arms from a team that had one of the best pitching staffs in the entire country. As great as pitching coach Christian Ostrander has been, that’s still a tall order.
The Golden Eagles will be throwing four to five freshmen as well as several transfer players and will be depending on having to have several breakout seasons from the pitching staff. There seems to be too few dependable arms in the preseason.
While the potential is there to have that success, the staff will have its fair share of bumps and bruises early on with the schedule.
3. NEW CONFERENCE
Southern Miss will enter its first year in the Sun Belt, which was already a strong baseball conference that has become even more competitive with the additions of the Golden Eagles and Old Dominion.
If the current makeup of the Sun Belt existed last year, then six teams would have been playing in the NCAA tournament. The conference could have had three teams playing in a Super Regional as Coastal Carolina and Texas State reached their regional finals, which includes USM. Not to mention, Georgia Southern also hosted a regional. Although the Golden Eagles were picked as the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, there are realistically seven teams that all have equal chances of winning the conference.
Unlike Conference USA, there are maybe one or two easy weekends in the Sun Belt for Southern Mis, i.e., James Madison and Arkansas State. By comparison, in the C-USA days, there were essentially three weekend series that ultimately mattered, which were Louisiana Tech, Charlotte and Old Dominion.
Besides the Sun Belt, Southern Miss’ non-conference schedule this year is one of its most brutal in recent memory.
THE CANS
1. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
The gamble of taking on a brutal schedule goes both ways. As much as a tough schedule can hurt you, it can also help you.
If Southern Miss walks away with at least a similar record compared to last year, then the Golden Eagles’ rating percentage index (RPI) will be unquestionable.
Nine teams on the schedule finished within the Top 50 in RPI.
If the Golden Eagles pick up enough wins out of this tough slate and add either a regular season or conference tournament title, then USM could easily land a Top 8 national seed and guarantee to host another Super Regional. With so many heavy contenders in this year’s college baseball field, it’ll help stave off the fiercer competition until Omaha.
2. THE WIZARD OF OZ
Southern Miss pitching coach Christian Ostrander has been nothing short of brilliant since his arrival back in 2018. Even last year, Ostrander turned down several favorable coaching jobs to remain with the Golden Eagles.
Since joining USM, Ostrander has coached three Conference USA Pitchers of the Year and five All-Americans.
Although it is unrealistic to think that Southern Miss will duplicate its numbers from last year’s pitching staff, the Golden Eagles have led the county in strikeout-to-walk ratio in the previous two years. This has quickly become the identity of the staff. Therefore, it’s hard not to think that despite throwing several new faces, the Golden Eagles will still be very good at not giving up walks.
In the five seasons Ostrander has been here, Southern Miss’ pitching has not only improved as the year has gone on but has peaked during the NCAA tournament. To recap, ace pitcher Tanner Hall had his breakout game against Ole Miss to avoid elimination and reach the regional final, while last year, Justin Storm pitched brilliantly to force a Monday game against LSU.
And so, despite Southern Miss having to replace so much talent, it’s safe to assume Ostrander’s group will only get better.
3. THE LINEUP
The biggest X-factor for Southern Miss is its lineup, as the Golden Eagles return seven key bats from last year.
For context, USM brings back 65 of their 82 team home runs and is easily primed to go well over that mark this season. This includes double-digit home run hitters Reece Ewing (10), Slade Wilks (10), Carson Paetow (16) and Christopher Sargent (21).
Perhaps what makes this lineup even more potent than last year are the additions of Tate Parker and Matthew Etzel. Etzel was rated by D1Baseball.com as the top junior college transfer in the country. At Panola College, Etzel posted a .433 batting average, hit seven home runs, seven triples, 19 doubles, drove in 49 runs and stole 20 bases.
Parker, who was named the NJCAA Division II National Player of the Year at Pearl River CC, batted .450, drove in 65 runs, hit 19 home runs and stole 18 bases.
Etzel quickly earned the starting job in center field, while Ewing and Parker will split time in left field.
Even with the additions of Etzel and Parker, Southern Miss has several other options they can turn to in the dugout if any bat gets cold, which includes Matthew Russo, Graham Crawford, Rodrigo Montenegro and Nick Monistere, who are all dependable.
4. (BONUS) – PETE TAYLOR PARK
It’s no secret that Southern Miss has one of the best environments in all of college baseball. However, it seems that the atmosphere is on pace to be even more extravagant.
Prior to the 2022 season, Southern Miss sold a season-ticket record of 2,500 tickets. By the end of last year, the Golden Eagles ranked No. 11 in overall attendance as they averaged 4,687 fans per game.
Southern Miss has since shattered that preseason season-ticket record after announcing that every home game for the entire season has been sold out. It’s safe to assume that by the end of the year that USM will easily be in the top 10 of attendance in the country.
Last year’s crowds easily helped the Golden Eagles win numerous ball games and should help USM pull together a strong home record. Having said that, Southern Miss’ homefield advantage will be unlike any other team in the Sun Belt.
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