Let me start by saying this as clearly as I can - I believe Southern Miss football has a winning team.
The Las Vegas odds place them at 4.5 wins, but most national outlets have the Golden Eagles winnings at most three games. I believe they are dead wrong.
Now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I would be surprised if USM found itself playing for a championship, but I do believe they will be in the upper half of the Sun Belt conference.
One of my colleagues pointed out that the feeling surrounding this year’s football team is similar to just before the men’s basketball program had its breakout season two years ago. To recap, the Golden Eagles went from a seven-win season to winning the conference regular-season title.
I didn’t say anything then, but it felt like that program was about to turn the corner, so I didn’t want to make that same mistake twice. I don’t think USM’s football will have as dramatic of a turnaround, but I’m confident that Hall will break through in Year 4 for three primary reasons.
In many ways, the Golden Eagles’ upcoming football season holds many parallels to that of the men’s basketball program, with Hall’s job slowly becoming less secure, as was the case for basketball coach Jay Ladner. I truly believe that Southern Miss’ Director of Athletics Jeremy McClain views the football team’s situation just like his basketball program – as he should, but more on that later.
Regardless, there are three major reasons why I think Southern Miss will turn a corner this year.
The first is that Will Hall finally put his pride aside. After giving up play-calling last year, he not only hired a true offensive coordinator but has embraced his offseason move. But I also like how Chip Long’s scheme works for Southern Miss as it plays to their team’s strengths. Not to mention, Long has taken over the tight ends position, which in one year may have gone from being one of the biggest liabilities to arguably one of the strongest positions on the team based on the recent fall camp.
Newly-hired defensive coordinator Clay Bignell also seems to run a defense similar to previous DC Austin Armstrong, which carried the team for two years. Like Long, Bignell’s defense caters to the strengths of his players, particularly the defensive line, which is probably the most talented position group on the team.
The second reason is that Southern Miss’s overall roster is arguably the most talented it has been in the last four years, partly due to the recent transfer portal class. Florida State transfer Tate Rodemaker is better than any other quarterback USM has had in the last few years, and the same can be said about Ethan Crawford. The offensive line finally looks figured out and should be at the least better than what it has been, and the running backs have the talent to replace Frank Gore Jr.’s overall production.
The wide receivers finally have multiple viable options compared to last year. Outside of Jason Brownlee, who briefly enjoyed an NFL career with the New York Jets, the Golden Eagles have not had consistent or reliable targets in the passing game. Dannis Jackson, Larry Simmons and Ti Mims, on paper, are the best overall trio of receivers in Hall’s tenure.
The third reason is that the schedule seems much more winnable than compared to when it was first revealed. This year’s slate of games features four new head coaches and five teams that have had to completely revamp their rosters, so games like Troy, South Alabama, Jacksonville State, and James Madison seem more winnable than before. As a whole, it seems that the Sun Belt, in general, will not be as competitive this year as it has been in the past. Texas State is favored to win the West Division, and although the Bobcats will be formidable and deserve the offseason expectations, let’s remember Southern Miss nearly beat them.
Realistically, I could see Southern Miss as an eight-win team, but at the very least, taking the over on the Vegas odds. This, of course, is barring some sort of injuries.
But after having said all of that, if Hall can’t show improvement in his program or has another disastrous season, then change should be warranted. My definition of disaster is three wins or less.
It’s worth noting that McClain has not paid a true buyout to any coach in his entire tenure and that Hall has one year left on his contract after this season. McClain has yet to give in to pressures from the fanbase, which has been his greatest strength. He proved it with the basketball, but this is football, and there is way more money at stake.
Yes, the blame for several offensive problems in the past can be placed on Hall, but the Golden Eagles’ leader faced an unfair uphill climb when taking over the program. To recap, Hall’s first year had more off-the-field problems than anticipated, with as little as 60 scholarship players, which was a side effect of the disastrous 2020 season. The next year, Hall put together a bowl victory. Last year, the season was filled with defensive injuries that played a role in the disappointment of the season.
Regardless, fans have called for Hall’s job, some of it understandably. But at the same time, it has felt like the fanbase has taken out 10 years of frustrating seasons out on Hall.
So here's one final thought to think about. What happens if Hall fails to deliver and is fired?
No matter what, this upcoming college football season is pivotal for not only the Southern Miss program but the entire athletic department. Although we are still in the early phases of NIL and revenue sharing dictating college sports, Hall’s firing could create unsettling ramifications. If a school like Southern Miss falls behind in the infancy of NIL because of a coaching search, then that could quickly set them back to a point where it could take years to recover from.
So let me put it to you like this - Hall needs to win. But it's not to just save his job. Hall needs to win to ensure financial stability that the school has longed for the last decade. So if Hall gets fired right now, then another frustrating 10 years could be in store for Southern Miss’ future.
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